Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
